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Dynamique de la Motorisation et Usage de l'Automobile en France (L'Île-de-France en Perspective)

Abstract : Since the 50's, automobile has proved to be a very active subject of debate in France. A fabulous and essential communication tool for its defenders, it is on the contrary associated to nature reserves waste by its detractors. At the heart of the controversy, 81% of french households have chosen to be car-motorized in 2001: automobile plebiscite seems undisputable.
Nevertheless, ecological stakes due to global warming, traffic regulation and the omnipresence of car facilities, makes the “all-automobile” impossible, while the “zero car” seems really utopian. In such a context, the urgency compels to civilize automobile behaviours. This implies, first of all, to analyze individual automobile equipment and use decisions, which is the matter of this research.
Using the French panel data Parc Auto, we model three basics of car-motorization. First, households “automobility” is analyzed using the Becker's rational addiction model. Next, their equipment level is studied applying an ordered Probit model with a latent autoregressive structure. The last part of the thesis deals with the individual qualitative choice of car acquisition, using a multinomial Probit model.
All along this research, the emphasis has been put on behaviour dynamics, which measures the impact of past automobile choices on current equipment and use decisions. The effects of individual income and fuel prices upon these behaviours are also reported. Moreover, the adopted zoning, which distinguishes between Paris-centre, inner and outer suburbs of Paris, provides some specific results to each of these Île-de-France areas.
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Contributor : Roger Collet <>
Submitted on : Thursday, September 4, 2008 - 4:49:42 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, January 19, 2021 - 11:08:27 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00318707, version 1



Roger Collet. Dynamique de la Motorisation et Usage de l'Automobile en France (L'Île-de-France en Perspective). Economies et finances. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00318707⟩



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