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Crédibilité et efficacité de la politique de ciblage d'inflation en Turquie sur la période 2002-2006

Abstract : Turkey has adopted an implicit inflation targeting regime between 2002 and 2005, and then inflation targeting became explicit since 2006. My thesis's objective is to examine the credibility and efficiency of this monetary policy and to see whether it has improved the credibility of Central Bank of Republic of Turkey. This policy change has proved to be efficient in the early years: the seigniorage effect has significantly decreased, the inflation rate has fallen below 10% and growth rate of GDP was over 6%. Our study demonstrates theoretically it is a monetary policy, which avoids the inflationary bias and combines various measures of credibility improvement. Credibility is measured by inflation expectations. The empirical analysis of inflation expectations is based on errors of prevision. Our results shows that the expectations are adaptive and private agents' errors are smaller and smaller in time. The decreasing yield curve indicates that the financial markets anticipate a disinflation between 2002 and 2005, but the curve increases again in 2006. These findings indicate that certain credibility has been provided but it is fragile. The econometric analysis by VECM of joint process of Central Bank's and secondary market's key rates points out the existence of a long term equilibrium rate defined by Central Bank. Seo tests result that the unfavorable geopolitical shocks didn't affect the rates' dynamics but the opening of the negotiations for Turkey to join the EU enhanced the efficiency of monetary policy
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Submitted on : Wednesday, July 16, 2008 - 4:02:12 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00298438, version 1


Zehra Yesim Gürbüz Besek. Crédibilité et efficacité de la politique de ciblage d'inflation en Turquie sur la période 2002-2006. Economies et finances. Université Rennes 2, 2008. Français. ⟨tel-00298438⟩



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