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AVISE, une démarche d'Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts, application à un matériel passif d'une centrale nucléaire : le pressuriseur

Abstract : This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of “similar” components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressuriser. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00271619
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Submitted on : Wednesday, April 9, 2008 - 4:59:26 PM
Last modification on : Monday, October 19, 2020 - 11:08:37 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00271619, version 1

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Leïla Bouzaiene-Marle. AVISE, une démarche d'Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts, application à un matériel passif d'une centrale nucléaire : le pressuriseur. Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]. Ecole Centrale Paris, 2005. Français. ⟨tel-00271619⟩

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