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Susceptibilité du bassin de Barcelonnette (Alpes du Sud, France) aux 'mouvements de versant' : cartographie morphodynamique, analyse spatiale et modélisation probabiliste

Yannick Thiery 1
1 LETG - Caen - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique
LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554
Abstract : Some spatial analysis approaches based on GIS and probabilistic models have been developed to map landslide susceptibility and hazard at meso-scale (1: 50 000 – 1: 25 000). These approaches are not adapted for the French legal procedure 1: 10 000. This ‘expert' methodology used for the PPR knows some drawbacks especially due to the subjectivity of the scientific. Then, in addition of an ‘expert' cartography, the methodology used in this work is based on a selection of three probabilistic approaches by GIS used Fuzzy logic rules, the Weight of evidence and the Weighted logistic regression. Because the three approaches are very sensitive to the variables(response variables and predictive variables), the procedure is divided in three steps with: the collection of the variables based on a detailed morphodynamic map, the choice of the variables by a sensitivity analysis, the comparison of the results in order to define the best approach. A neo-predictive variable, with a geomorphological meaning and combining several variables, increases the predictive power of each approach. The results obtained in the Barcelonnette basin are then transposed in a secondary test site in order to test their validity. Finally, an attempt to obtain some real hazard map with physically based models is performed. This thesis shows that is possible to obtain good results if the calibration strategy is adapted and rigorous. It brings further information for the development of landslide hazard map taking into account physical processes.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - 4:03:52 PM
Last modification on : Friday, September 25, 2020 - 3:35:54 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, September 23, 2010 - 4:26:29 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00259135, version 3

Citation

Yannick Thiery. Susceptibilité du bassin de Barcelonnette (Alpes du Sud, France) aux 'mouvements de versant' : cartographie morphodynamique, analyse spatiale et modélisation probabiliste. Géomorphologie. Université de Caen, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00259135v3⟩

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