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Prévision d'ensemble locale des brouillard et nuages bas à l'aéroport international de Roissy Charles de Gaulle

Abstract : A Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) designed for fog and low clouds short range prediction at Paris Charles de Gaulle airport is developed for providing short range likelihood of LVP (Low Visibility Procedure – visibility < 600m and/or ceiling < 60m) conditions over the airport. LEPS relies on the local operational deterministic prediction scheme COBEL-ISBA of LVP conditions used at Charles de Gaulle airport. The sources of uncertainty on COBEL-ISBA inputs have been identified for both the initial conditions and the mesoscale. A Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) calibration has been applied to improve the raw ensemble reliability. LEPS validation shows that this probabilistic system provides reliable short range forecast of the likelihood of LVP conditions over Charles de Gaulle airport. As a consequence, LEPS open up interesting perspectives for flight scheduling and the airport safety and management.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00250947
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Submitted on : Tuesday, February 12, 2008 - 11:47:23 AM
Last modification on : Monday, October 19, 2020 - 10:54:41 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, May 17, 2010 - 5:32:40 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00250947, version 1

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Stevie Roquelaure. Prévision d'ensemble locale des brouillard et nuages bas à l'aéroport international de Roissy Charles de Gaulle. Océan, Atmosphère. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00250947⟩

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