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Evaluation des risques de crise, appliquée à la détection des conflits armés intra-étatiques

Thomas Delavallade 1
1 MALIRE - Machine Learning and Information Retrieval
LIP6 - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Paris 6
Abstract : In many different fields, rational risk analysis is part of the decision making process. It is a fundamental methodological tool which helps economic and politic actors to anticipate potential crises. Such an analysis aims at identifying not only risky situations but also the main risk factors so that prevention policies can be built more easily.
This analysis is usually dedicated to human experts, but the data available in which to retrieve the relevant information may be so large that there is a great need for tools automating part of the risk analysis.
We propose a generic decision support system dedicated to crisis prediction. The goal of this system is to provide a synthesis of the structural situation through the identification of potential crises and of the main factors that may explain the weaknesses of the situation. Our system relies on the supervised learning of fuzzy decision rules. As the data quality is a major concern in many applications a large part of our study has to deal with data preprocessing and more precisely missing data imputation and feature selection. We have also investigated the problem of model selection so that our system can find the most suitable model for a given application. To assess the quality of our methodology we have chosen to apply it on intrastate conflict prediction which will thus be at the subject of our experiments throughout the thesis.
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Contributor : Thomas Delavallade <>
Submitted on : Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 6:10:41 PM
Last modification on : Friday, January 8, 2021 - 5:34:11 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, May 3, 2010 - 12:53:46 PM


  • HAL Id : tel-00230663, version 1


Thomas Delavallade. Evaluation des risques de crise, appliquée à la détection des conflits armés intra-étatiques. Autre [cs.OH]. Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00230663⟩



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