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Ancrage nominal du taux de change et coûts de la désinflation : une estimation économétrique

Abstract : Over the last decades, many countries have adopted exchange rate targets to absorb their high chronic inflation or hyperinflation. The objective of this work is to report some results that bear on the link between exchange rate-based stabilizations and the behaviour of the main macroeconomic indicators in high inflation economies, notably inflation rate and output, in Latin America and in Central and Eastern Europe. In general, using the exchange rate as nominal anchor is efficient to curb inflation rate. This efficiency appears more remarkable and more sustainable in transition countries than in Latin America, where the success of disinflation has often been challenged by the role of fixed exchange rate in an unstable economic and financial environment. On the other hand, its impact on economic activity is not that obvious. Low sacrifice ratios, often close to zero, estimated by traditional method and structural VAR models, suggest disinflation in the two regions have been carried out at no costs to output. However, heterogeneous results do not allow to establish an unquestionable relationship between output costs and exchange rate-based disinflation, and to compare disinflation costs between countries or, regions and nominal anchor strategies. The choice of nominal anchor can not be based on a comparison between sacrifice ratios.
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Submitted on : Monday, December 17, 2007 - 4:13:32 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00198619, version 1



Thuy Van Pham. Ancrage nominal du taux de change et coûts de la désinflation : une estimation économétrique. Economies et finances. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00198619⟩



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