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Modélisation des bilans de surface et des débits sur la France, application à la prévision d'ensemble des débits

Abstract : The French coupled hydrometeorological model SIM (SAFRAN : interpolates atmospheric forcing over a 8 km regular grid; ISBA : surface scheme; MODCOU : distributed hydrological model) is first applied over the Seine basin. It is evaluated over a 10-year period, with a particular attention on the underground and the streamflows. The long duration floods of the Seine at Paris are also examined.
A real-time ensemble streamflow prediction system over France, based on SIM, is then described. The ISBA and MODCOU models are forced by meteorological ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, downscaled to a 8 km resolution. A statistical study of the abilities of the system, especially for low flows and floods, is produced using nearly one year of forecasts. An analysis of ensemble forecasts for recent large flood events over France is also presented.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00197071
Contributor : Météo Toulouse Médiathèque <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 10:07:04 AM
Last modification on : Friday, October 23, 2020 - 4:51:58 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, April 12, 2010 - 7:28:38 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00197071, version 1

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Fabienne Rousset Regimbeau. Modélisation des bilans de surface et des débits sur la France, application à la prévision d'ensemble des débits. Hydrologie. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00197071⟩

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