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Asymétries, ajustements conjoncturels et persistance d'hétérogénéités au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire

Abstract : The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), though highly integrated on goods and financial markets, is characterized by a strong and persistant heterogeneity of inflation and business cycle differentials among participating countries. This dissertation proposes several explanations to this puzzle. We propose an evaluation of the cost of these heterogeneities, analyze the relative contribution of possible sources and question the ability of fiscal policies to reduce these asymmetries. To do this, we lay out and estimate New Open Economy Macroeconomics models of monetary unions taking into account various sources of asymmetric diffusion of shocks. In the first chapter, we investigate the role of home biais in consumption and production (equivalent to trade costs) when financial markets are imperfectly integrated. We show that (i) welfare gains related to the reduction of structural asymmetries are important, equivalent to an average 60% increase in permanent consumption for a constant labor effort and (ii) that trade integration may account for the persistance or the increase of asymmetries in the diffusion of macroeconomic shocks. In the second chapter, we ask whether fiscal policies may reduce these asymmetries. From a theoretical point of view, we confirm that fiscal policies are the appropriate tool to stabilize the consequences of asymmetric shocks. From an empirical point of view, we evaluate the cost related to restrictions applied to fiscal policies, such as the Stability and Growth Pact. These restrictions limit the possibility to stabilize shocks, which is costly. Our estimations suggest that fiscal policies do not stabilize asymmetric shocks. The last chapter analyzes the case of the asymmetric diffusion of symmetric shocks in a three-country model of an open monetary union. Asymmetries in the diffusion are related to asymmetries in the degrees of nominal rigidities or in the extra-zone trade openness. As in the first chapter, our results challenge the theoretical conclusions according to which a better commercial integration or a better integration of production processes systematically reduce asymmetries.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00186826
Contributor : Aurélien Eyquem <>
Submitted on : Monday, November 12, 2007 - 3:47:49 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, January 14, 2021 - 1:16:18 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, April 12, 2010 - 1:57:01 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00186826, version 1

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Aurélien Eyquem. Asymétries, ajustements conjoncturels et persistance d'hétérogénéités au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire. Economies et finances. Université Rennes 1, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00186826⟩

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