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Caractérisation des retombées atmosphériques en France en zone rurale sous forme de précipitations, gaz et aérosols. Analyse des tendances spatio-temporelles et des séries chronologiques.

Abstract : The works presented in this thesis concern the atmospheric fallout in rural area and are in keeping with the French MERA (Background Air Pollution Network) programme. The pollutants measured in the stations are in connection with the acid rain and photochemical pollution problems. Two statistical tests, to detect and estimate trends within time series, were used. The procedure is based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to detect the trend and on the Sen method to estimate the magnitude. These tests were applied to the 5.000.000 of annual, seasonal and monthly MERA data over the 1990-2003 period, then, to the national and European precursor emissions. The mean acidity of the rains, after dropping at the beginning of the 90s, has slightly been increasing since 1996 whereas the acidifying compounds emissions have been decreasing. This observation seems to be correlated with the reduction in basic cations, NH4+ and with the acid aerosols. The concentrations in sulphur compounds (gas and aerosols) have strongly decreased since the beginning of the 90s associated with the strong emission reductions. For O3, an increase in the concentrations is observed between 1995 and 2003, associated with a reduction in the precursor emissions. Several factors can explain this increase: changes of the precursor emissions, strato-tropospheric exchanges, intercontinental transport, climate changes, the COV/NOx ratio, bio-geogenic compounds emissions. In the future, subjective forecasts by linear extrapolations could be made with a 99%-confidence interval.
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Contributor : Pierre Louis Sicard <>
Submitted on : Sunday, September 2, 2007 - 11:17:00 PM
Last modification on : Monday, October 19, 2020 - 10:57:14 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00169222, version 1

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Pierre Louis Sicard. Caractérisation des retombées atmosphériques en France en zone rurale sous forme de précipitations, gaz et aérosols. Analyse des tendances spatio-temporelles et des séries chronologiques.. Océan, Atmosphère. Université des Sciences et Technologie de Lille - Lille I, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00169222⟩

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