Modélisation climatique du bassin méditerranéen : variabilité et scénarios de changement climatique

Abstract : Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclogenesis are studied in the Mediterranean
with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates
these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional
coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclogenesis as well
as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower interannual variability than in
non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving
this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21st
century with the non-coupled models : cyclogenesis decreases, associated precipitation
increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting
of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur.
This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change
impacts on the Mediterranean.
Document type :
Theses
Climatologie. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2005. Français


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Samuel Somot. Modélisation climatique du bassin méditerranéen : variabilité et scénarios de changement climatique. Climatologie. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2005. Français. <tel-00165252>

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