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Theses

Choix intertemporels : un modèle comportemental d'escompte quasi-hyperbolique

Abstract : In this thesis, we propose a model of intertemporal choice built on the hypothesis of a rational individual with an imperfect knowledge of his own time preferences. At the time of choosing, the individual who seeks cognitive consistency reconciles several successive cognitions: his normative preference – represented by the discounted utility model (DU) - that he perceives with more or less precision and one or several myopic preferences imposed by the context of the decision. We handle first the general case of a myopic preference for the most immediate reward. This preference is generated by a primacy effect in the perception by the individual of the sequences of outcomes or consumptions. In the chosen formalization, the preference for primacy drives the individual to use a quasi-hyperbolic discount function, which explains a great set of anomalies of the DU model.
Then we tackle the particular case where (at least) one of the choice options arouses a “visceral” preference and those where one option constitutes a status quo, modifying again the discount function and driving new inconsistencies. We test the general “sequential discount” model and the model with status quo on experimental data. Finally, we apply the modelisation to lifecycle savings decisions.
The individual is supposed to be permanently subject to consumption “cues” that suggest him a myopic preference for immediate consumption that he cannot anticipate. Therefore he constantly experiments overconsumption compared to his plans. We show that the existence of an illiquid asset enables this individual to constrain his future consumptions and to avoid a critical insufficiency of savings when retiring.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00165187
Contributor : Lucie Label <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, July 25, 2007 - 10:52:58 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, November 17, 2020 - 11:18:08 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, April 8, 2010 - 8:54:45 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00165187, version 1

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Mickael Mangot. Choix intertemporels : un modèle comportemental d'escompte quasi-hyperbolique. Economies et finances. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00165187⟩

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