A. Abad, ´´Utilización del bootstrap para caracterizar las propiedades cíclicas de una serietemporaì, Instituto Nacional de Estadística (España), 1998.

M. Abramovitz, ´´Resource and Output Trends in The U.S since 1870, American Economic Review, issue.462, pp.5-23, 1956.

D. Acemoglu, S. Johnson, and J. Et-robinson, ´´The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation, American Economic Review, issue.91, pp.1369-1401, 2001.

D. Acemoglu, S. Johnson, and J. Et-robinson, ´´Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run growth`` , Chapitre 6 dans Handbook of Economic Growth, 2004.

D. Acemoglu, S. Johnson, J. Robinson, and . Et-thaicharoen, ´´Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, issue.50, pp.49-123, 2003.
DOI : 10.3386/w9124

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.390.347

P. Agénor, C. J. Mcdermott, and . Prasad, Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts, The World Bank Economic Review, vol.14, issue.2, pp.251-285, 2000.
DOI : 10.1093/wber/14.2.251

M. Aguiar and G. Gopinath, ´Émerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend, 2004.

S. Ahmed, ´´Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes, Journal of Development Economics, issue.72, pp.181-202, 2003.

J. Aizenman and . Marion, Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries, Economica, vol.66, issue.262, pp.157-179, 1999.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-0335.00163

URL : http://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0335.00163

G. Akerlof and J. Et-yellen, ´´A near-rational model of the business cycle with wage and priceinertià, Quarterly Journal of Economics, issue.100, pp.823-838, 1985.

A. Alesina, S. Özler, and N. Roubini, ´´Political stability and economic growth, Journal of Economic Growth, issue.12, pp.189-211, 1996.

T. B. Andersen and . Tarp, Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth in LDCs, Journal of International Development, vol.102, issue.February, pp.189-209, 2003.
DOI : 10.1002/jid.971

M. Arellano and . Bover, Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.58, issue.2, pp.277-297, 1995.
DOI : 10.2307/2297968

A. Arreaza and M. Dorta, ´´Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations inVenezuelà, 2004.

A. Arreaza and . Pedauga, ´´Determinantes de los cambios en la productividad total de los factores enVenezuelà, 2006.

M. Avella and L. Fergusson, ´´Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos yColombià, 2003.

A. Averbug and F. Giambiagi, ´´The Brazilian Crisis of 1998-1999: Origins and Consequences, 2000.

D. K. Backus, P. J. Kehoe, and . Kydland, International Real Business Cycles, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100, issue.4, pp.745-775, 1992.
DOI : 10.1086/261838

R. Balza, ´´Cambio Institucional Ideología y Desempeño Económico en Venezuela: 1958 a, 2002.

A. Baptista, Bases Cuantitativas de la Economía Venezolana, pp.1830-95, 1997.

R. Barro, Discussion of M. Eichenbaum and K. Singleton, ´´Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles, Macroeconomics Annual, 1986.

R. Barro, Democracy and growth, Journal of Economic Growth, vol.32, issue.1, pp.1-27, 1996.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00163340

R. Barro and Z. Hercowitz, ´´Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, issue.6, pp.257-267, 1980.

A. Bayar, X. Diao, and A. Et-yeldan, ´´An Intertemporal, Multi-region General Equilibrium Model of Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the South Mediterranean NIC's, Turkey, and the European Union, Discussion Paper No, vol.56, 2000.

M. Baxter and . King, Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.84, issue.4, pp.575-593, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/0167-2231(86)90035-7

W. Berger, The choice between fixed and flexible exchange rates: Which is best for a small open economy?, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol.28, issue.4, pp.371-385, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.02.001

I. Berlin, Four Essays on Liberty, 1969.

B. Bernanke and R. Gürkaynak, ´´Is growth exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil seriously, 2001.

S. Beveridge and C. Nelson, ´´A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the businesscyclè, Journal of Monetary Economics, issue.7, pp.151-174, 1981.

O. J. Blanchard and S. Fischer, Lectures on Macroeconomics, 1989.

R. Blundell and S. Bond, Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models, Journal of Econometrics, vol.87, issue.1, pp.115-143, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

A. Boragan, J. Fernández-villaverde, and . Rubio-ramírez, ´´Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies, J, 2004.

C. Bruno and . Portier, A Small Open Economy RBC Model: the French Economy Case, Advances in Business Cycle Research, 1995.
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-642-57817-5_6

G. Bry and C. Boschan, ´´Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1971.

C. Burnside, Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.41, issue.3, pp.513-532, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00007-5

M. Camacho, G. Perez-quiroz, and L. Saiz, Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.30, issue.9-10, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jedc.2005.08.012

J. Campbell, ´´Inspecting the Mechanism. An analytical approach to the stochastic growthmodeì, Journal of Monetary Economics, issue.33, pp.463-506, 1994.

F. Canova, Detrending and turning points, European Economic Review, vol.38, issue.3-4, pp.614-623, 1994.
DOI : 10.1016/0014-2921(94)90097-3

F. Canova, Detrending and business cycle facts, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.41, issue.3, pp.475-512, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00006-3

E. Carlstein, ´´The use of subseries methods for estimating the variance of a general statistic stationary time series, Annals of Statistics, issue.14, pp.1171-1179, 1986.

P. Cashin, ´´Caribbean Business Cycles`` , IMF Working paper, 2004.

P. Cashin and C. J. Mcdermott, 'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports, Economic Record, vol.78, issue.242, pp.249-263, 2002.
DOI : 10.1111/1475-4932.00055

R. Cattell, The Scree Test For The Number Of Factors, Multivariate Behavioral Research, vol.1, issue.2, pp.629-637, 1966.
DOI : 10.1207/s15327906mbr0102_10

L. Christiano and M. Eichenbaum, ´´Is theory really ahead of measurement? Current business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations, 1990.
DOI : 10.3386/w2700

C. Clague, P. Keefer, S. Knack, and . Olson, Property and contract rights in autocracies and democracies, Journal of Economic Growth, vol.48, issue.2, pp.243-76, 1996.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00138864

L. Clemente, ´´Crecimiento Económico y Productividad en Venezuela, Oficina de Asesoría Económica y Financiera, Primer Simposio Anual de Investigación Económica Venezolana (UCAB), 1950.

T. Coelli, D. Rao, and . Battese, An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis, 1998.
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-4615-5493-6

P. Collier and . Hoffler, ´´Greed and Grievance in Civil Wars`` , Centre for the Study of African Economies, pp.2002-2003, 2002.

D. Comin and . Gertler, ´´Medium Term Business Cycles, American Economic Review, issue.963, pp.523-51, 2006.
DOI : 10.3386/w10003

URL : http://artsci.wustl.edu/~econgr/macro/papers/Comin_Gertler_AER06.pdf

P. D. Corbae and S. Ouliaris, ´´Extracting Cycles from Non-StationaryDatà`Datà`Econometric Theory and Practice: Frontiers of Analysis and Applied Research, 2003.

P. D. Corbae, . Ouliaris, and P. C. Et-phillips, Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data, Econometrica, vol.70, issue.3, pp.1067-1109, 2002.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-0262.00319

A. Costello and J. Osborne, ´´Best practices in exploratory factor analysis: four recommendations for getting the most from your analysis`` , Practical Assessment Research & Evaluation, pp.1-9, 2005.

M. Cuevas, ´´Potential GDP growth in Venezuela: a structural time series approach, 2002.
DOI : 10.1596/1813-9450-2826

J. W. Dawson, ´´Institutions, Investment, and Growth: New Cross-Country and Panel DataEvidencè`, Economic Inquiry, pp.603-619, 1998.

H. Dellas and G. Tavlas, Wage Rigidity and Monetary Union*, The Economic Journal, vol.16, issue.3, pp.2-19, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.06.006

X. Diao and A. Somwaru, ´´An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of Mercosur, An Intertemporal WorldModeì, Journal of Policy Modeling, issue.22, pp.557-588, 2000.

D. Dollar and . Kraay, Institutions, trade, and growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.50, issue.1, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00206-4

R. Duncan, ´´How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chileandatà, 2002.

B. Efron, ´´Computers and the theory of statistics: thinking theunthinkablè, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Review, issue.214, pp.460-480, 1979.

M. Eslava, J. Haltiwanger, A. Kugler, and . Kugler, ´´Plant Turnover and Structural Reforms inColombià`, IMF Staff Papers, pp.58-75, 2006.

G. Evans, S. Honkapohja, and . Et-romer, ´´Growth Cycles`` , The American Economic Review, pp.495-515, 1998.

. Fonds-monétaire and . International, ´´International Financial Statistics`` . Freedom House Freedom in the world, 2005.

M. Fugazza and F. Robert-nicoud, ´´Can South-South Trade Liberalization Stimulate North-South Trade, 2006.
DOI : 10.11130/jei.2006.21.2.234

J. Gaspar and J. , ´´Solving large-scale rational expectations models, Macroeconomic dynamics, pp.45-75, 1997.

S. Girma, M. Henry, R. Kneller, and C. Milner, ´´Threshold and Interaction Effects in the Openness-Productivity Growth Relationship: The Role of Institutions and Natural Barriers, p.32, 2003.

R. Gordon, ´´A neo-classical theory of Keynesian unemployment`` , Economic Inquiry, pp.431-459, 1974.

J. Greenwood, . Hercowitz, and G. Et-huffman, ´´Investment, capacity utilization and the real businesscyclè, American Economic Review, issue.78, pp.971-987, 1988.

J. Greenwood, . Hercowitz, and P. Et-krusell, ´´The role of investment-specific technological change in the businesscyclè`, European Economic Review, issue.44, pp.91-115, 2000.

Z. Griliches, The Discovery of the Residual, 1995.
DOI : 10.4324/9780203070710.ch29

P. Guillaumont, . Guillaumont-jeanneney, and J. Et-brun, How instability lowers African growth, Journal of African Economics, vol.8, issue.1, pp.87-107, 1999.
DOI : 10.1093/jae/8.1.87

URL : http://jae.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/8/1/87

J. Gwartney and R. Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World, Annual Report, 2004.

R. Hall and . Jones, ´´Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others, Quarterly Journal of Economics, issue.114, pp.83-116, 1999.
DOI : 10.3386/w6564

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.200.6655

R. Hall, . Rudebusch, and D. Wilcox, Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation, International Economic Review, vol.37, issue.2, pp.283-298, 1996.
DOI : 10.2307/2527324

R. Hausmann, Shocks Externos y Ajuste Macroeconómico, 1990.

A. Heston, R. Summers, and B. Et-aten, ´´Penn World Table Version 6.1``, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), 2002.

R. Hodrick and E. Prescott, ´´Post-War U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, 1980.

A. Hoffmaister and J. Et-roldos, Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?, IMF Working Papers, vol.97, issue.9, 1997.
DOI : 10.5089/9781451927313.001

J. Isham, M. Woolcock, L. Pritchett, and G. Busby, The Varieties of Resource Experience: How Natural Resource Export Structures Affect the Political Economy of Economic Growth, SSRN Electronic Journal, pp.3-08, 2003.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.410364

M. Jerzmanowski, Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth, Journal of Development Economics, vol.81, issue.2, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.05.005

L. Jones, R. Manuelli, and H. Siu, Fluctuations in convex models of endogenous growth, II: Business cycle properties, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.8, issue.4, pp.805-828, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/j.red.2005.05.005

B. F. Jones and B. A. Et-olken, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.120, issue.3, pp.835-864, 2005.
DOI : 10.1093/qje/120.3.835

D. Jorgenson and Z. Griliches, The Explanation of Productivity Change, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.34, issue.3, pp.249-283, 1967.
DOI : 10.2307/2296675

K. Judd and S. Guu, Perturbation Solution Methods for Economic Growth Models, 1993.
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-4757-2281-9_4

. Varian, Economic and Financial Modeling in Mathematica
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-4757-2281-9

H. Kaiser, ´´The application of electronic computers to factor analysis`` , Educational and Psychological Measurement, pp.141-151, 1960.

D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and . Mastruzzi, ´´Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for, 1996.
DOI : 10.1596/1813-9450-3106

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.195.2165

R. King, C. Plosser, and . Rebelo, ´´Production, Growth and Business Cycles: The Basic NeoclassicalModeì`, Journal of Monetary Economics, issue.31, pp.195-232, 1988.

R. King, C. Plosser, . Stock, and M. Et-watson, ´´Stochastic trend and economic fluctuations, American Economic Review, issue.85, pp.819-840, 1991.
DOI : 10.3386/w2229

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.406.6117

P. Kline, An Easy Guide to Factor Analysis, 1994.

A. Kose, ´´Explaining business cycles in small open economies. How much do world prices matter, Journal of International Economics, issue.56, pp.299-327, 2002.

A. Kose and R. Et-riezman, ´´Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations inAfricà, Journal of Development Economics, issue.65, pp.55-80, 2001.
DOI : 10.1142/9789814390125_0019

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.199.418

H. Künsch, ´´The jacknife and the bootstrap for general stationary observations`` , The Annals of Statistics, pp.1217-1241, 1989.

F. Kydland and . Prescott, Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica, vol.50, issue.6, pp.173-208, 1982.
DOI : 10.2307/1913386

S. Lahiri, ´´Theoretical Comparisons of Block Bootstrap Methods`` , The Annals of Statistics, No, vol.27, issue.1, pp.386-404, 1999.

A. Levin, L. Chien, and C. , Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties, Journal of Econometrics, vol.108, issue.1, pp.1-24, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7

R. Levine, ´´Financial Development and economic Growth: Views andAgendà, Journal of Economic Literature, No, vol.35, issue.3, pp.688-726, 1997.
DOI : 10.1596/1813-9450-1678

D. Lilien, Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment, Journal of Political Economy, vol.90, issue.4, pp.777-793, 1982.
DOI : 10.1086/261088

N. Loayza and R. Et-ranciere, ´´Financial Development, Financial Fragility and Growth`` , IMF Working paper, 2005.

J. Long and C. Plosser, Real Business Cycles, Journal of Political Economy, vol.91, issue.1, pp.39-69, 1983.
DOI : 10.1086/261128

R. Lucas, ´´Expectations and the neutrality of Money, Journal of Economic Theory, issue.4, pp.103-124, 1972.

R. Lucas, ´´Some International Evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs, American Economic Review, issue.63, pp.326-334, 1973.

R. Lucas, ´´Understanding BusinessCyclè`, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, pp.7-29, 1977.

R. Lucas, Models of Business Cycles, 1987.

M. Marshall, K. Jaggers, . Mayda, and . Steinberg, ´´Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2004: Dataset Users ´´Do South-South Trade Agreements increase Trade? Commodity-Level Evidence from COMESA, C, issue.07, p.40, 2004.

H. Mehlum, . Moene, and R. Et-torvik, ´´Institutions and the ResourceCursè`, The Economic Journal, pp.1-20, 2006.

E. Mendoza, ´´Real business cycle in a small open economy, American Economic Review, issue.81, pp.797-889, 1991.

E. Mendoza, The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations, International Economic Review, vol.36, issue.1, pp.101-137, 1995.
DOI : 10.2307/2527429

H. Minsky, ´´Financial stability revisited: The economics of disaster´´, Reappraisal of the Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, 1972.

I. Mintz, ´´Dating American Growth Cycles`` , dans The Business Cycle Today, editeur, Victor Zarnowitz, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp.39-88, 1972.

R. Mundell, ´´A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review, issue.51, pp.509-517, 1961.

P. Neumeyer and P. , ´´Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, issue.52, pp.345-380, 2005.

D. North, Structure and Change in Economic History, 1981.

D. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance, 1990.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511808678

J. D. Ostry and C. Reinhart, ´´Private saving and terms of trade shocks, IMF Staff Papers, issue.39, pp.495-517, 1992.

P. Persson and G. Tabellini, ´´Growth, income distribution and democracy, European Economic Review, issue.36, pp.593-602, 1992.

J. Pineda and J. Pineda, ´´Factibilidad de un área monetaria para los países de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones, 2003.

J. Pineda and F. Sáez, ´´Productividad y Crecimiento en Venezuela, 2004.

E. Phelps, The Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, 1970.

G. Ramey and V. A. Et-ramey, ´´Cross country evidence on the link between volatility and growth, American Economic Review, issue.85, pp.1138-1151, 1995.
DOI : 10.3386/w4959

J. Rand and . Tarp, Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?, World Development, vol.30, issue.12, pp.2071-2088, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00124-9

P. Reyes, ´´Ciclos Económicos enMéxicò`, El Colegio Mexiquense, 2002.

M. Roche, Government Spending and the International Business Cycle, The Canadian Journal of Economics, vol.29, issue.4, pp.865-84, 1996.
DOI : 10.2307/136218

F. Rodriguez and J. Sachs, ´´Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly, Journal of Economic Growth, issue.4, pp.277-303, 1999.

D. Rodrik, A. Subramanian, and F. Trebbi, ´´Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development, Journal of Economic Growth, issue.92, pp.131-165, 2004.

J. Sachs, ´´Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per CapitaIncomè, 2003.
DOI : 10.3386/w9490

J. Sachs and . Warner, Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol.1995, issue.1, pp.1-118, 1995.
DOI : 10.2307/2534573

J. Sachs and . Warner, ´´Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth`` , Center for International Development, Harvard university, 1997.

F. Sáez, ´´Patrones cíclicos de la economíavenezolanà, 2004.

F. Sáez and L. Puch, ´´Shocks Externos en una EconomíaPetrolerà, 2004.

X. Sala-i-martin and A. Subramanian, ´´Addressing The Natural Resource Curse : An Illustration FromNigerià, 2003.

J. Santiso, Latin America's Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free-Marketers, 2006.

J. Shea, ´´Instrument relevance in multivariate linear models: a simplemeasurè`, Review of Economics and Statistics, pp.348-352, 1997.

C. Sims, ´´Is there a Monetary BusinessCyclè, American Economic Review, pp.228-234, 1983.

R. Solow, ´´Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function`` , Review of Economics and Statistics, pp.312-320, 1957.

A. Soofi and S. Moussavi, Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol.26, issue.8-9, pp.959-972, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2004.06.004

J. Stiglitz, ´´The efficiency wage hypothesis, surplus labor and the distribution of income in LDCs, 1976.

J. Stock and M. Watson, Testing for Common Trends, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.83, issue.404, pp.1097-1107, 1988.
DOI : 10.1214/aoms/1177706450

R. Suescún, ´´Commodity Booms, Dutch Disease and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Coffee inColombià, p.73, 1997.

A. J. Venables, ´´Winners and losers from regional integration agreements`` , The Economic Journal, pp.747-761, 2003.

L. Vera, ´´Líderazgo Político Renta y Política Económica: La Gestión Económica en la era de Chávez, 2003.

J. Viner, The Customs Union Issue, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1950.

C. Zimmermann, International real business cycles among heterogeneous countries, European Economic Review, vol.41, issue.2, pp.319-355, 1997.
DOI : 10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00028-1

C. Zimmermann, International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates, Review of International Economics, vol.7, issue.4, pp.682-698, 1999.
DOI : 10.1111/1467-9396.00193