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Fluctuations cycliques dans une zone de libre-échange : le cas de la communauté andine des nations

Abstract : This research work focuses on the detailed analysis of short term cyclic fluctuations in the Andean Community of Nations (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela). In the first place, we analyze the main features of business-cycle fluctuations in the region, notably in terms of cycle duration, the incidence and amplitude of its phases and the degree of synchronization within the trade area, through the configuration of an identification algorithm and the implementation of a bootstrap resampling procedure. Second, we seek to elucidate the sources of Andean fluctuations in the context of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with regional interactions, in which partner economies and the rest of the world face three different exogenous stochastic shocks: country-specific productivity shocks, country-specific
investment shocks and region-wide terms of trade shocks. To finish, we center our analysis on the relevance institutional change may have in explaining short-term fluctuations in Latin America. To this matter, we first introduce a real business cycle model, calibrated to reproduce some characteristics of the Venezuelan economy, in which institutional quality is associated to a shock amplification mechanism. Subsequently, we empirically explore the link between institutions and supply-side innovations making use of statistical tools borrowed from factor
analysis and panel data econometrics.
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Contributor : Agnès Carcenac <>
Submitted on : Monday, July 2, 2007 - 10:57:22 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 20, 2021 - 10:48:06 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00159025, version 1


José Alejandro Quijada. Fluctuations cycliques dans une zone de libre-échange : le cas de la communauté andine des nations. Sciences de l'Homme et Société. Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2007. Français. ⟨tel-00159025⟩



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