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Rattachement de petites monnaies à l'euro

Abstract : This thesis concerns the integration of the eight CEEC's (Central and Eastern European Countries) in the Monetary Union. Rather than to analyse the institutional criteria of convergence which are officially apply by the European Institutions, it carries out an economic and econometric analysis related on macroeconomic mechanisms of these economies. Chapter one studies the co-movements of real and monetary variables and also the convergence of the movements of these two categories of variables between the former members and the news members of the UE. Chapter 2 and 3 are related to the transmission channels of the monetary policy. We emphasize that the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy depend on the exchange rate regimes of these countries. Chapter 4 proposes an empirical study about the impact of the contagion effect on the credibility of the CEEC'S currencies during the monetary crises between 1996-2001. The effect of contagion appears as an essential factor in the determination of the rate of exchange. Finally, chapter 5 estimate a possible nature of anticipations of the exchange rate of zloty/euro and zloty/dollar. We emphasize the adaptive nature of anticipations of the exchange rate only for the parity zloty/euro and evoke some possible tracks of research.
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Submitted on : Friday, April 6, 2007 - 3:50:42 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00140522, version 1



Iuliana Matei. Rattachement de petites monnaies à l'euro. Economies et finances. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2006. Français. ⟨tel-00140522⟩



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