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Analyse statistique d'expériences simulées : Modélisation adaptative de réponses non régulières par krigeage et plans d'expériences, Application à la quantification des incertitudes en ingénierie des réservoirs pétroliers

Abstract : Quantification of uncertainty in reservoir performance is an essential phase of oil field evaluation and production. Due to the large number of parameters and the physical complexity of the reservoir, fluid flow models can be computationally time consuming. Traditional uncertainty management is thus routinely performed using proxy models of the fluid flow simulator, following experimental design methodology. However, this approach often ignores the irregularity of the response. The objective of the thesis is to construct non-linear proxy models of the fluid flow simulator. Contrary to classical experimental designs which assume a polynomial behavior of the response, we build evolutive experimental designs to fit gradually the potentially non-linear shape of uncertainty. This methodology combines the advantages of experimental design with geostatistical methods. Starting from an initial trend of the uncertainty, the method determines iteratively new simulations that might bring crucial information to update the estimation of the uncertainty. Four criteria of adding new simulations are proposed. We suggest performing simulation at the extremes and the null derivative points of the approximation in order to better characterize irregularity. In addition, we propose an original way to increase the prior predictivity of the approximation using pilot points. The pilot points are also good candidates for simulation. This methodology allows for an efficient modeling of highly non-linear responses, while reducing the number of simulations compared to latin hypercubes. This work can potentially improve the efficiency in decision making under uncertainty.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00127750
Contributor : Grégory Thureau <>
Submitted on : Monday, January 29, 2007 - 4:08:03 PM
Last modification on : Friday, June 19, 2020 - 9:10:04 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Tuesday, April 6, 2010 - 9:00:21 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00127750, version 1

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Céline Scheidt. Analyse statistique d'expériences simulées : Modélisation adaptative de réponses non régulières par krigeage et plans d'expériences, Application à la quantification des incertitudes en ingénierie des réservoirs pétroliers. Mathématiques [math]. Université Louis Pasteur - Strasbourg I, 2006. Français. ⟨NNT : 2006STR13102⟩. ⟨tel-00127750⟩

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