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Theses

Trois essais sur la croissance, la pauvreté et les propriétés cycliques de la politique budgétaire

Abstract : This thesis is a collection of three essays, each corresponding to a chapter. The first chapter investigates the causes of
Africa's poor growth performance along the line of the policy argument. It therefore focuses on the strand of literature that highlights
the role of policy instability and uses the dependent economy model as the main theoretical framework. It explores the potential
effects of real exchange rate and public spending instabilities on growth dynamics as well as the transmission channels through which
these effects unfold. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that public spending instability increases real exchange rate
instability, which in turn exerts a negative impact on both investment and total factor productivity. In addition, the empirical
investigation suggests partially that real exchange rate appreciation contributes to the decline of sectors with important positive
externalities, thereby leading to persistent productivity losses and weak economic growth. These results can be interpreted as
indicating that the stability of public spending and real exchange rate are keys to the region's long-term economic growth.
The second chapter explores the relationships between economies policies and poverty, using again the dependent
economy model as the main theoretical construct. Accordingly, it focuses on public spending and real exchange rate, with more
emphasis on real exchange rate, and explores the links between these two variables and poverty. The empirical analysis, which is
based on a sample of African and non-African countries, shows that real exchange rate depreciation favours the poor, provided that
income is fairly distributed and institutions are sound. The main policy implication of this finding is that real exchange rate
depreciation could be a powerful tool for poverty reduction if complemented by other policies. Such policies include facilitating the
access of the poor to production factors and improving the quality of institutions.
In line with the literature that links policy choices to political regimes, the third and last chapter looks into the implications
of the democratisation process in Africa on the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the continent. In particular, the main question that
is investigated is whether democratic institutions have been conducive to more countercyclical fiscal policies in the region. The
empirical investigation uncovers a positive association between democratic institutions and countercyclical fiscal policies. More
importantly, formal institutions that impose restraints on the executive branch are found to be the key factor that explains why
democracies can smooth business cycles better than autocracies.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, November 29, 2006 - 9:03:52 AM
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Oumar Diallo. Trois essais sur la croissance, la pauvreté et les propriétés cycliques de la politique budgétaire. Humanities and Social Sciences. Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2006. English. ⟨tel-00116961⟩

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