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Erreurs de prévision d'un modèle océanique barotrope du Golfe de Gascogne en réponse aux incertitudes sur les forçages atmosphériques : caractérisation et utilisation dans un schéma d'assimilation de données à ordre réduit

Abstract : In this study we characterized and estimated the forecast errors of the oceanic free-surface barotropic model MOG2D of the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel in presence of uncertainties in high-frequency atmospheric forcings (pressure and wind from ARPEGE). Error covariances are obtained via an ensemble method, namely in the form of multivariate ensemble EOFs. In the English Channel, oceanic errors appear to be highly controlled by wind uncertainties; in the Bay of Biscay, they are mainly linked to pressure errors. Then, in the framework of twin experiments, these error statistics are used in the reduced-order data assimilation system SEQUOIA/MOG2d in order to evaluate how the model is controlled, in several configurations of the system and various scenarii of in situ and altimetry observational network. Provided that the surface atmospheric variables are corrected, tide-gauge networks provide an efficient control of the model error and are complementary with HF radars.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00107174
Contributor : Williams Exbrayat <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, October 17, 2006 - 3:35:42 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, January 9, 2021 - 3:30:54 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Tuesday, April 6, 2010 - 6:16:01 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00107174, version 1

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Julien Lamouroux. Erreurs de prévision d'un modèle océanique barotrope du Golfe de Gascogne en réponse aux incertitudes sur les forçages atmosphériques : caractérisation et utilisation dans un schéma d'assimilation de données à ordre réduit. Océan, Atmosphère. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2006. Français. ⟨tel-00107174⟩

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