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PREVISION A BREVE ECHEANCE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS PAR L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE LE 19 SEPTEMBRE 2000
DANS LA REGION MARSEILLAISE

Abstract : This study intendes to anticipate heavy rains falls at short term by using electric activity data. It is based on the analysis of very strong precipitations which occurred on September the 19th, 2000 in Marseilles area (Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur).
The methodology allows, by a statistical analysis, to determine the trajectories of electric activity and precipitations (calculation of the weighted centres of gravity for each core of cell), and to associate them (using space and temporal queries within GIS) in order to determine anticipation times of the strong rains. The rains are estimated by the radar of Nîmes (A.R.A.M.I.S. network), the data of the weather stations, and the electric activity resulting from SAFIR system are integrated in a GIS, then coupled to a digital elevation model on the Bouches du Rhone department. The images of the radar and the electric activity are carried out with a 5 minutes step.
We can observed time delays between rains (radar data) and weather stations measurements. Various methods, integrating these results, are used to predict rainfalls thanks to electric activity: measurement of the temporal shift between the maxima, synchronous and asynchronous common variance, and stabilization times of the trajectories. The predictions obtained by these methods are equivalent. The electric activity (related to precipitations trajectory) allows, within 15-20 minutes (average), to anticipate the precipitations maxima of each episode of rains, estimated by the radar. Although the results are significant, they are limited by few available samples (four couples of trajectories).
This work opens an important field of investigation on relevant methodologies to anticipate the exceptional rainfalls in a general framework.
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Romain Guillon. PREVISION A BREVE ECHEANCE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS PAR L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE LE 19 SEPTEMBRE 2000
DANS LA REGION MARSEILLAISE. Géographie. Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille I, 2005. Français. ⟨tel-00084657⟩

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