Modélisation inverse pour l'optimisation des sources primaires de pollution atmosphérique à l'échelle régionale

Abstract : Atmospheric pollution at a regional scale is the result of various interacting processes: emissions, chemistry, transport, mixing and deposition of gaseous species. The forecast of air quality is then performed by models, in which the emissions are taken into account through inventories. The simulated pollutant concentrations depend highly on the emissions that are used. Now inventories that represent them have large uncertainties. Since it would be difficult today to improve their building methodologies, there remains the possibility of adding information to existing inventories. The optimization of emissions uses the information that is available in measurements to get the inventory that minimizes the difference between simulated and measured concentrations.

A method for the inversion of anthropogenic emissions at a regional scale, using network measurements and based on the CHIMERE model and its adjoint, was developed and validated. A kriging technique allows us to optimize the use of the information available in the concentration space. Repeated kriging-optimization cycles increase the quality of the results. A dynamical spatial aggregation technique makes it possible to further reduce the size of the problem.

The NOx emissions from the inventory elaborated by AIRPARIF for the Paris area were inverted during the summers of 1998 and 1999, the events of the ESQUIF campaign being studied in detail. The optimization reduces large differences between simulated and measured concentrations. Generally, however, the confidence level of the results decreases with the density of the measurement network. Therefore, the results with the higher confidence level correspond to the most intense emission fluxes of the Paris area. On the whole domain, the corrections to the average emitted mass and to the matching time profiles are consistent with the estimate of 15% obtained during the ESQUIF campaign.
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Isabelle Pison. Modélisation inverse pour l'optimisation des sources primaires de pollution atmosphérique à l'échelle régionale. Physique [physics]. Université Paris XII Val de Marne, 2005. Français. ⟨tel-00011681⟩

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