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Booms de ressources exogènes et développement manufacturier en Egypte: l'illusion du syndrome hollandais

Abstract : The purpose of this Ph.D. thesis is to analyse the impact of exogenous resources booms on the development of Egyptian manufacturing. Our interest for the manufacturing sector comes from its central contribution for the long-run growth. If it is generating the sources of long-run growth, an unexpected decline, even temporary, of this sector may have, ceteris paribus, irreversible effects in terms of growth performances. Egyptian manufacturing sector has known such a decline between 1974 and 1985. During this very period, Egypt has also known several positive external shocks, related to the once-for-all surge of four types of revenues: aid, oil, Suez canal revenues and worker remittances. At first sight, the theory of the Dutch disease, analysing how a boom may induce a de-industrialisation, seemed to us particularly relevant for explaining the Egyptian experience. The original aspect of our research is that it stresses the irrelevancy of the Dutch disease mechanism for explaining the Egyptian manufacturing decline as a reaction to the booms. It shows that the impact of the booms on Egyptian manufacturing sector may be explained by an “allocation of talents” mechanism. The booms encourage the development of a politico-institutional context that favours rent-seeking activities, making them more profitable that productive activities. Hence, the rent-seeking activities are attracting the most talented workers. The implications of the booms for the manufacturing sector are much more serious than a Dutch disease effect. Besides the productive structure, the performances of the different sector are affected. The technical progress is hampered by the re-allocation of talents out of the manufacturing sector. Within this context, we think that exogenous resources boom may have a negative impact on long-run growth even if the sources of growth are absent of the manufacturing sector, precisely for preventing them from appearing.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00009583
Contributor : Hélène Djoufelkit-Cottenet <>
Submitted on : Friday, June 24, 2005 - 10:10:03 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, February 23, 2021 - 9:42:02 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, April 2, 2010 - 10:00:52 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00009583, version 1

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Hélène Djoufelkit-Cottenet. Booms de ressources exogènes et développement manufacturier en Egypte: l'illusion du syndrome hollandais. Economies et finances. Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2003. Français. ⟨tel-00009583⟩

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