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A. Le-probl@bulletme-abord?-ici-est-celui-de-la-d?pendance-entre-lkoster, exc?s en deut?rium de la 'premi?re' vapeur, d?finie en IV.1.1, et les conditions locales de temp?rature et d'humidit? relative. Les mod?les d'?vaporation montrent en effet (Craig et Gordon, 1965) que le flux de vapeur, comme d'isotopes, d?pend de ces deux param?tres. Les relations avec ces deux param?tres ne peuvent ?tre estim?es?partirestim?es?estim?es?partir de mesures, qui n'existent pas, maisîmaisî'aide de mod?les. Ces mod?les d?crivent les flux en isotopes en fonction du gradient vertical de la vapeur Une hypoth?se ind?pendante est donc n?cessaire pour fixer ce gradient Merlivat et Jouzel (1979) ont utilis? la fermeture globale des flux pour le d?terminer implicitement (voir section IV.1.1), tandis que dans un mod?le de circulation g?n?rale (MCG) ce gradient est calcul? explicitement Le mod?le de flux de Merlivat et Jouzel (1979) permet de calculer des sensibilit?s de l'exc?s en faisant varier s?par?ment temp?rature et humidit? (Figure IV.3) Au contraire dans un MCG, comme dans la nature, ces param?tres sont d?pendants?caused?pendants?d?pendants?cause du lien fort entre temp?rature et humidit?, via la pression de vapeur saturante. Graphiquement, on peut d?terminer des sensibilit?s?chacunsensibilit?s?sensibilit?s?chacun de ces deux param?tres (Figure IV.4), dans les plans (exc?s, temp?rature) et (exc?s, humidit?). Ces sensibilit?s n'ont pas de signification, car on consid?re alors les projections de la surface (exc?s, temp?rature, humidit?), id?alement plane. La technique de r?gression multiple permet d'estimer les bonnes sensibilit?s, 1988.

M. Le, de l'air, l'humidit? relative et l'exc?s en deut?rium de la vapeurîavapeurîa surface de l'oc?an, ? partir des conditions limites impos?es. Les valeurs mensuelles utilis?es ici sont des moyennes sur 5 ans d'une simulation moderne (T001)

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