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Incertitude et environnement: essai de représentation et analyse des choix publics

Abstract : In this dissertation, we deal with representation of uncertainty and analysis of public choices in environmental problems under uncertainty. In the first part, we propose to characterize scientific uncertainty (two levels), which is used in formal terms according to a hierarchy of models : plausibility, capacity, probability. After reviewing known theories, these formalizations of scientific uncertainty enable to present and analyse properties of the relevant decision criteria. In the second part, we deal with temporal aspects and irreversibilities. We use a non bayesian decision criterion : scientific uncertainty can not be represented by a unique probability distribution. We also distinguish effects due to irreversibility from those due to information and precautionnary. We propose for this purpose some effects. We also propose an analysis of option values, we associate an option value to every effect defined previously.
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Contributor : Tania Bouglet <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, January 22, 2003 - 5:23:21 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, January 19, 2021 - 11:08:22 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00002304, version 1



Tania Bouglet. Incertitude et environnement: essai de représentation et analyse des choix publics. Economies et finances. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2002. Français. ⟨tel-00002304⟩



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