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Fiche détaillée Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8 (2008) 905-918
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Kopf.ea-20080515-UsingMapsOfCityAnaloguesToDisplayAndInterpretClimateChange.pdf(5.6 MB)
Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty
Sebastian Kopf1, Minh Ha-Duong2, Stéphane Hallegatte2, 3

We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling
Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution
regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.
1 :  Jacobs University Bremen
2 :  CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
3 :  CNRM - CNRM
Climate change – Climate analogues – Climate relocation – Urban Areas – Uncertainty